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Baker Hughes Downgraded to Watchlist as the Stop Is Reached
Baker Hughes lifted its 2026 guidance and then fell 7%. A cut to cash conversion and a fourth-quarter-weighted Chart contribution moves the rating to Watchlist.
Stocks Rose Into a 90% Chance of a Rate Hike
August core CPI ran 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast and lifted hike odds near 90%, yet the S&P 500 gained 0.86% as crude fell $2.43 and a four-day slide ended.
Adobe Upgraded to Buy as Two Triggers Clear
Adobe beat its quarter targets, raised the full-year outlook and named a permanent CEO. A lower share price now offers enough upside for a Buy rating.
The Ten-Year Hit a 52-Week High on an In-Line PPI Print
August producer prices rose 0.4% exactly as forecast, yet the annual rate jumped to 5.4%, the 10-year closed at 4.95% and rate-hike odds climbed toward 70%.
Oracle's Cloud Backlog Meets the Capital Bill
Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue doubled and its backlog reached $664bn, but negative free cash flow keeps the shares on the Watchlist for investors today.
CrowdStrike Returns to Watchlist: the Entry Never Came
CrowdStrike goes back to Watchlist. The $180-198 entry band set in August was never offered, and at $210.02 the shares now sit above the base-case value.
The Two-Year Moved Three Basis Points on a Payroll Blowout
Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 in August against a 58,000 forecast, yet the two-year yield added only three basis points and the S&P 500 still closed down.
Waller Outranked the Data on Thursday
Services prices paid hit 72.6, the highest since 2022, yet a dovish Waller pulled yields down and carried the S&P 500 up 1.06% into the holiday weekend.
Broadcom's Record Quarter, a Light Guide, and a First Look at 2028
Broadcom beat on revenue and earnings, guided the next quarter $200m light, then used the earnings call to put a first 2028 profit target on the record.
A 38,000 Payroll Print No Longer Buys a Rate Cut
ADP private payrolls rose 38,000 in August against a 47,000 forecast, the weakest since January, yet the 10-year touched 4.814% and equities closed higher.
Credo Upgraded to Buy After Both Triggers Fire
Credo beat its own guidance for a fifth straight quarter and raised the year, while the shares fell 17%. Both conditions set in August have now been met.
Four Prints, One Driver: Crude Ran Tuesday's Market
ISM manufacturing slipped to 54.6 and job openings fell to 7.271 million, but a 5% jump in crude and a 4.80% 10-year yield set Tuesday's direction instead.
Adobe Downgraded to Watchlist as the Discount Disappears
Adobe has run 26% past its original Buy level on sector beta and product news. The forward multiple is 11.2x, and the stock now trades above consensus.
Oracle Moves to Watchlist: the 5.5% Growth Figure Was Wrong
Oracle is upgraded from Avoid to Watchlist. Fiscal 2027 earnings growth is 17.9% on a clean base, not the 5.5% published three weeks ago. Credit has not moved.
Warsh's First Jackson Hole Doubled the Odds of a September Hike
Warsh said underlying inflation has not meaningfully improved and September hike odds jumped to 57.5% from 35.4%. Chicago PMI fell to 47.1 and went unheard.
Affirm (AFRM): The Headline EPS Was Not the Story
Affirm's $4.62 quarterly EPS was almost entirely a deferred tax release. The number that actually mattered was a fiscal 2027 take-rate guide of 4.16% of GMV.
Claims at 203,000 Give the Fed Room to Worry Only About Inflation
Initial claims fell 4,000 to 203,000 for the week ended 22 August against a 208,000 consensus, but it was Nvidia, not the labour data, that drove Thursday.
Marvell Raised the Outlook and the Stock Fell Anyway
Marvell lifted its fiscal 2028 revenue target by $1.5bn to about $18bn, then dropped as much as 7% after hours. Fair value rises to $229; the rating holds.
CrowdStrike Upgraded to Buy as the ARR Trigger Fires
CrowdStrike posted a record $333m of net new ARR and lifted full-year ARR guidance by 630bp, meeting the precise upgrade condition set out on 20 August.
Real Consumer Spending Went Nowhere in July
Core PCE held at 3.3% and real consumer spending was flat in July, yet the S&P 500 finished Wednesday within about two points of where the session started.
NVIDIA Beat Big. The Bull and Bear Cases Both Got Stronger.
NVIDIA's July quarter beat consensus by 4.4% and the multiple fell to roughly 17.5x forward. The financing of its own demand grew by an order of magnitude.
Three Numbers From Tuesday: 607,000, 9.6 Months and 68.2
New home sales fell 10.5% to a 607,000 annual rate in July and consumer expectations sank to 68.2, yet the S&P 500 closed 0.32% higher as yields eased.
GE Vernova (GEV): Where Does the Free Cash Flow Actually Come From?
GE Vernova opens coverage at Watchlist. The $176bn backlog is real, but almost all of the trailing operating cash flow arrived as customer down payments.
Meta's $16.68 Billion Settlement Removes a Tail Risk and Adds a Cash Claim
Meta will pay a maximum of $16.68 billion to settle the state child-safety case. It caps an unpriceable tail risk, and it does not change the Watchlist rating.
AMD Upgraded to Buy as the Retreat Meets the Trigger
AMD is upgraded from Watchlist to Buy after an 8.7% fall to $473.25 met the buy trigger set on 5 August, with the Helios ramp confirmed in full production.
Cerebras (CBRS): 103% Growth, and Two Customers in One City
Cerebras grew core revenue 103% and holds $8.6bn in cash, but roughly 86% of 2025 revenue came from two Abu Dhabi-linked entities. Coverage opens at Watchlist.
The Flash PMI Split: Services at a 20-Month High, Factories at a 13-Month Low
S&P Global's flash services PMI jumped to 56.8 against a 53.9 forecast while manufacturing slipped to 53.2. The composite hit 56.0, its best since April 2022.
Rocket Lab (RKLB): A 137% Backlog Surge and a Rocket That Has Not Flown
Rocket Lab's backlog rose 137% and revenue 62%, yet launch revenue grew 1.8% and the shares fetch roughly 41 times forward sales. Coverage opens at Watchlist.
Crude Stocks Built 4.4 Million Barrels and Oil Rose Anyway
US crude inventories rose 4.4 million barrels against a 0.2 million forecast, yet WTI climbed to $84. Distillate stocks 13% below average explain the split.
A Five-Year High in Philadelphia, and a Bond Market That Cared More
The Philadelphia Fed index hit 47.4 against a 24.1 forecast and jobless claims fell to 206,000, yet the S&P 500 lost 0.87% as the 10-year yield climbed.
Three Fed Officials Voted to Hike, and Stocks Closed Higher Anyway
July FOMC minutes revealed a 9-3 hold at 3.50%-3.75%, with three dissents favouring a rate hike and no cut camp at all. The S&P 500 closed 0.21% higher anyway.
Coherent (COHR): Booked Through 2028, and Burning Cash to Get There
Coherent beat and guided above consensus with fiscal 2027 fully booked, then fell 10.3% on a rival's cash flow miss. Coverage opens at Buy at $315.00.
Credo (CRDO): Five Questions About a 68% Gross Margin and a 40x Multiple
Credo tripled revenue at a 68% gross margin, but 60% of its guided fiscal 2027 lands in the second half. New coverage opens at Watchlist at $249.64 a share.
Housing Starts Fall to a Three-Year Low and Nobody on Wall Street Looked Up
July housing starts sank 12.4% to a 1.239 million rate, far under consensus, while permits beat at 1.443 million. The tape traded yields and chips instead.
Nu Holdings (NU): A Record Quarter Assembled From the Tax Line
Nu Holdings cleared $1 billion in quarterly profit, but pre-tax earnings were flat and the tax rate halved. New coverage opens at Watchlist at $14.74 a share.
ServiceNow (NOW): Downgraded to Hold Without a Single New Number
ServiceNow rose 11.5% in two weeks on a software rotation and analyst target raises, with no new company data. Coverage moves from Buy to Hold at $124.
The Consumer Buckled in July and the Bond Market Sold Off Anyway
July retail sales fell 0.6% against a 0.2% consensus and Michigan sentiment slid to 51.0. Weak demand data, yet the 10-year yield rose five basis points.
Cisco (CSCO): A Guidance Raise the Market Read as Bad News
Cisco beat the high end of its own guidance on every line and raised fiscal 2027 well above consensus, yet the shares fell 7%. New coverage opens at Buy.
Flat Headline PPI Buys a Record Close While the Core Runs Hot
July producer prices were unchanged against a 0.2% consensus, but core PPI jumped 0.4%. Equities traded the headline to a record S&P 500 close of 7,798.99.
Nebius (NBIS): The Call Was Worth 34%, and the Price Now Reflects It
Nebius beat modestly and reaffirmed guidance, then rose 34% on what management revealed about 2027 pricing and capacity. New coverage opens at Watchlist.
CoreWeave (CRWV): Four Conditions Were Set in July. The Quarter Answered Three.
July's CoreWeave review named four things that would justify an upgrade. Q2 cleared two, left one open and failed one. Fair value rises to $108; rating holds.
Four CPI Prints, Four Bullseyes, and a September Hike Taken Off the Table
July CPI hit consensus exactly on all four measures, 3.4% headline and 2.5% core. The 10-year eased two basis points and a September hike looks harder.
Lumentum (LITE): A Quarter That Improved the Company More Than the Investment
Lumentum beat on revenue, EPS and margin, then guided to 130% growth. The shares jumped 13% and the forward multiple barely moved. The rating stays Watchlist.
Bloom Energy (BE): A Record Quarter and a Watchlist Rating
Bloom Energy doubled revenue and raised guidance twice, yet the stock opens at Watchlist. At 78 times guided earnings, the price already holds the good news.
Existing Home Sales Land in Line, and the Tape Looked Straight Past Them
July existing-home sales slipped 1.7% to a 4.06 million annual rate, a whisker above consensus. Equities ignored it and traded oil and Wednesday's CPI.
Tesla (TSLA): Downgraded to Avoid After the Price Fell and the Multiple Did Not
Tesla's operating margin collapsed to 1.4% and free cash flow turned negative. The shares fell 17%, the multiple barely moved, and the rating drops to Avoid.
Airbnb (ABNB): The Best Quarter in Years, and a Price That Already Knows
Airbnb accelerated nights growth, raised guidance on both lines and gained 17.4% in a session. The Watchlist rating holds, now for the opposite reason.
AppLovin (APP): A One Percent Miss and a Twenty Percent Fall
AppLovin missed its own guidance for the first time since listing and fell 19.7%. Revenue still grew 53%, and at 18.9 times forward earnings it rates a Buy.
Datadog (DDOG): A Beat, a Raise, and a 19% Fall
Datadog beat, raised full-year guidance, then fell 19% after flagging a usage decline at its largest AI customer. The Watchlist rating holds, on new grounds.
Circle (CRCL): The Take Rate Held. The Float Didn't.
Circle defended its Coinbase contract and its reserve margin last quarter, but USDC in circulation fell 4.8% sequentially. The rating stays at Watchlist.
Oracle (ORCL): Downgraded to Avoid as the Credit Market Overrules the Rally
Oracle's five-year CDS hit an 18-year high and consensus now models fiscal 2027 free cash flow at negative $47.7bn. The rating drops to Avoid from Watchlist.
AMD: The Quarter Was Good. The Raised Long-Term Model Was the Real News.
AMD grew revenue 50% and more than doubled data centre sales, then raised its multi-year model and its $20 EPS target. The rating still stays at Watchlist.
SpaceX (SPCX): The AI Loss Is Closing. The Cash Burn Is Not.
SpaceX grew revenue 92% and turned its AI segment EBITDA-positive in its first public quarter. Capex of $18.4 billion is why the rating stays at Watchlist.
Baker Hughes (BKR): An Order Book Running Years Ahead of the Income Statement
Baker Hughes booked a record $7.1 billion of quarterly orders and a $37.1 billion backlog, yet revenue fell 2%. The reasoning behind the Buy rating on BKR.
Palantir (PLTR): An Extraordinary Quarter at an Extraordinary Price
Palantir grew revenue 93% at a 47% GAAP operating margin with 157% net dollar retention, then rose 29.5% in a session. Why the rating stays at Watchlist.
Amazon (AMZN): Ignore the $5.75. Look at the AWS Margin.
Amazon reported EPS of $5.75 against a $1.82 forecast, but a $53.4bn Anthropic gain explains almost all of it. The real story is AWS margin expansion.
Coinbase (COIN): Winning a Shrinking Market
Coinbase missed badly on revenue and posted a $1.36 loss, yet took record trading share for a third straight quarter. Why the rating stays at Watchlist.
Apple (AAPL): Best June Quarter Ever, Worst Reaction of the Week
Apple grew revenue 16% and fell 7%. The bull and bear cases turn on one question: whether the guided slowdown is a supply problem or a demand problem.
Micron (MU): The Best Quarter in Company History, and a Watchlist Rating
Micron earned an 86% gross margin and $50 billion of net income, yet probability-weighted fair value sits below the market. The rating moves to Watchlist.
Robinhood (HOOD): A Record Quarter With an Asterisk in Three Places
Robinhood posted record revenue and a large EPS beat, then fell on the day anyway. Three asterisks explain that gap, and why the rating stays at Watchlist.
Four Prints, One Bill: What Big Tech's Q2 Earnings Mean for Chip Stocks
Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple all confirmed the AI capex boom is accelerating. Chip stocks fell into a bear market anyway. A framework for the gap.
CrowdStrike (CRWD): Great Business, Wrong Price
CrowdStrike grew net new ARR 32% and holds 97% gross retention, yet trades at 151 times adjusted earnings. The bull and bear case behind the Watchlist call.
Lemonade (LMND): Why a 79% Revenue Quarter Cost the Stock a Quarter of Its Value
Lemonade grew revenue 79% and fell 24% in a session. The gap between reported revenue and in-force premium explains it, and the rating stays Watchlist.
Microsoft (MSFT): An 84% Jump in Backlog, and a 26% Jump in the Share Price
Microsoft beat on every line and guided Azure to acceleration, then rallied 26% in four sessions. The Buy rating holds, but the entry point now matters.
Meta (META): The Multiple Is Still Low, but the Cash Has Gone
Meta beat on revenue and missed badly on earnings, then erased the drop in three sessions. Why the rating moves from Buy to Watchlist on the capital picture.
SoFi (SOFI): A Record Quarter, and One Number Management Chose Not to Raise
SoFi beat on revenue and earnings and lifted its full-year sales outlook, yet held profit guidance flat. The reasoning behind the reaffirmed Watchlist call.
Amazon (AMZN): A Great Franchise Paying for an Unresolved Bet
Amazon's core earnings multiple is 37x, not the headline 27.6x, once an Anthropic stake gain is stripped out. Why the call is Watchlist into Q2 earnings.
Robinhood (HOOD): A Q&A Ahead of an Earnings Print That Already Happened
Robinhood grew net deposits 31% and converts 65% of revenue to free cash flow, yet trades at 44 times earnings with growth decelerating. A Q&A on the call.
SK Hynix Just Posted a Record Quarter — and the Stock Fell 14.7% Anyway
SK hynix beat every record on the books and still dropped 14.7% on an operating profit miss. Why this looks like an expectations reset, not a cycle turn, and wh…
AMD: A Genuinely Better Business, at a Price That Assumes It Wins
AMD is up 197% in a year on 14 gigawatts of AI deals, yet earns 7.8% on invested capital against a 17.8% cost. Why the price, not the business, is the problem.
Coinbase (COIN): The Bull Case, the Bear Case, and Why Neither Wins Yet
Coinbase shares fell 57% from their high as Bitcoin dropped and revenue shrank. A bull-versus-bear breakdown of why the call is Watchlist, not Buy, near $167.
Apple (AAPL): Three Numbers That Make This a Hard Buy Right Now
Apple grew revenue 16% and expanded margins this quarter, yet its earnings yield sits below the 10-year Treasury. Three numbers behind the Watchlist call.
Marvell (MRVL): A Growth Story Still Mid-Unwind From Its Own Blow-Off
Marvell grew revenue 28% and raised its fiscal 2028 target, yet the stock still trades at 49 times earnings after a 41% drawdown. Why the call is Watchlist.
Samsung and SK Hynix's $950 Billion Bet: What the Memory Mega-Deals Mean for Chip Stocks
Samsung and SK Hynix signed roughly $950 billion in supply deals with Nvidia and Broadcom, reversing a $1.5 trillion memory selloff. What it means for Micron, e…
CoreWeave (CRWV): Real Demand, but the Equity Sits Behind $35 Billion of Debt
CoreWeave has a $99 billion backlog and 146% expected growth, yet depreciation and interest already erase its entire cash margin. The case for patience.
Datadog (DDOG): A Q&A on the Best Operator in Software, at a Full Price
Datadog's revenue growth accelerated for four straight quarters to 32%, yet the stock trades at 19.5 times forward sales. A Q&A on whether that's a Buy.
Intel (INTC): A Real Turnaround, Priced Like a Sure Thing
Intel is up 170% in 2026 on foundry turnaround hopes, trading near 90x forward earnings while the foundry loses $2 billion a quarter. The call is Watchlist.
Alphabet and Tesla Report Q2 2026: A Capex Bet and a Margin Miss
Alphabet beat on revenue and raised capex guidance to $205 billion. Tesla beat on revenue but missed on profit. What both prints mean for AI and chip stocks.
Lemonade (LMND): Three Reasons for Caution, Three Reasons the Story Has Changed
Lemonade's loss ratio improved 16 points in a year and growth reaccelerated, yet the stock still trades at 4-5x sales. Weighing the bull and bear case.
NVIDIA (NVDA): The Rare Case Where the Price Is Not the Problem
NVIDIA grew revenue 85% with 75% gross margins and a $1 trillion order backlog, yet trades at just 21x forward earnings. Buy, not Strong Buy, and here is why.
SpaceX (SPCX): The Best Assets in the Market, at the Wrong Price
SpaceX trades 47% below its post-IPO peak, weighed down by an $18 billion cash-burning xAI bet and a looming wave of lock-up share supply into year-end.
Broadcom (AVGO): The Bull Case, the Bear Case, and a 20% Discount
Broadcom fell 13% on a clear earnings beat, then dropped another 20% from its June high on AI chip strength. The bull case, the bear case, and the verdict.
Affirm (AFRM): Proven Profitable, Priced for It
Affirm turned durably profitable this quarter with 35% GMV growth and contained credit losses. The business earned an upgrade; the price has not.
Airbnb (ABNB): A Wonderful Business, But Is the Price Right?
Airbnb generates 37% free cash flow margins and carries no debt, yet trades at nearly double the multiple of Booking Holdings. Quality is not the question.
Palantir (PLTR): A Q&A on a Great Business at a Demanding Price
Palantir grew Q1 revenue 85% and posted a 145% Rule-of-40 score, yet trades at 41x forward sales and 90x earnings. Why the call lands on Watchlist, not Buy.
Microsoft (MSFT): The Bull Case, the Bear Case, and What the Price Already Assumes
Microsoft fell 22% in a year despite accelerating Azure growth. The bull case, the bear case, and why the spending controversy looks priced in.
Netflix (NFLX): Three Reasons to Worry, Three Reasons the Sell-Off Went Too Far
Netflix is down 45% on back-to-back guidance misses, trading at a multi-year-low multiple. Three reasons for caution, three reasons it looks overdone.
SK hynix (SKHY): A Great Business, Priced Wrong on This Exchange
SK hynix leads the AI memory market, but its new Nasdaq ADR trades 24% above the Seoul shares it represents. Why that gap, not the cycle, is the risk.
Meta (META): Five Questions on the Cheapest Megacap Growth Stock
Meta grew revenue 33% and cut buybacks to zero in the same quarter. Five questions on why the stock still looks like a Buy at 19.8x forward earnings.
Alphabet (GOOGL): The Best Business on the Internet, Trading Like a Question Mark
Alphabet grew revenue 22% and Cloud 63%, yet the stock sits 15% below its high on capex fears. Why the sentiment-fundamentals gap looks like an opening.
Circle (CRCL): The Bull Case, the Bear Case, and the Verdict In Between
Circle's USDC franchise is strong, but 94% of revenue rides on reserve rates now under attack from a rival coin. The bull case, bear case, and verdict.
Lumentum (LITE): A Top AI-Optics Franchise, Priced for Perfection
Lumentum posted 90% revenue growth and a NVIDIA anchor investment, yet trades at 44x forward earnings. Great business, demanding price — call it Watchlist.
Adobe (ADBE): Three Reasons to Worry, Three Reasons the Market Might Be Wrong
Adobe trades at 9x forward earnings, a third of its historical average, after losing its CEO and CFO. Three reasons to worry, three reasons it may be overdone.
Chip Stocks Are Bleeding — Is This the Top, or a Sale?
Chip stocks lost $1.3 trillion in weeks after a record quarter. Here is why this looks like a valuation reset, not a demand collapse, and where to look next.
ServiceNow (NOW): Five Questions Before You Buy the Dip
ServiceNow is down nearly 50% on AI fears, yet renewals held near 97% and demand kept accelerating. Five questions on whether the dip is worth buying.
TSMC Just Posted a 77% Profit Surge — What It Means for AI
TSMC posted 77% profit growth and record margins in Q2 2026, with advanced chips driving 77% of sales — a strong signal for AI and chip demand.
IBM: Its Worst Trading Day in 115 Years, and Why the Street Is Split on What It Means
IBM shares fell 26% in a day, the worst drop since 1987, after a surprise earnings warning. The balance sheet is fine, the moat holds, and one week settles it.
SoFi (SOFI): A Genuinely Great Business That Still Isn't a Genuinely Cheap Stock
SoFi posted record revenue, profit, and loan growth this quarter, yet the stock is still down 31% for the year — and it still isn't obviously cheap.
Tesla (TSLA): A Genuinely Good Quarter Trading at a Price That Assumes a Great One
Tesla just posted record deliveries and real margin recovery. The car business looks solid. The $1.48 trillion price tag assumes a lot more than that.
Micron (MU): A Record Quarter, and a Stock in a Bear Market Anyway
Micron just posted its best quarter ever and beat estimates. The stock fell 22% anyway. Here is why the drop has almost nothing to do with the business.
Oracle (ORCL): A Real AI Boom Sitting on a Genuinely Stressed Balance Sheet
Oracle beat estimates and raised guidance, yet the stock is down nearly 60% from its peak. The problem is not demand. It is how the boom is being financed.
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