Blog
Plain-English summaries of our stock research: what changed, and what it means for the investment case. Updated as new reports land.
Consumer Confidence Jumped 7.5 Points to 91.7 While the 10-Year Held at 4.99%, and the Nasdaq Gained 1.2%
Confidence rose to 91.7 against 80.5 expected, durable goods gained 1.8% and new home sales hit 676,000, yet the 10-year yield held near 4.99% on Tuesday.
Robinhood Passed Its Prediction-Market Test, but Crypto Revenue Halved. Watchlist Holds
Robinhood event-contract revenue hit $173m in Q3, but crypto revenue fell 55% and GAAP EPS slid to $0.51. Fair value is $101.02; Watchlist holds at $79-$84.
SoFi Raised Its Outlook and Put $0.90 on 2027. After a 13% Jump, Watchlist Holds
SoFi beat, raised its 2026 outlook and guided 2027 EPS to $0.90. The shares rose 13.4% to $16.40, leaving 11% to fair value. Watchlist holds at $14.00-$14.50.
SpaceX's Biggest Compute Customer Can Leave on 90 Days' Notice. Watchlist Holds
Anthropic may pay SpaceX up to $120.5bn through 2029 but can exit on 90 days' notice, as a $40bn Apollo lease funds the build. Fair value falls to $116.95.
Lula Wins Brazil and Nu Fair Value Drops to $13.10. Watchlist Holds at $10.50-$11.00
Lula's runoff win cut Nu's fair value to $13.10 from $16.00 as the real slid. Monzo is off the table, but Watchlist holds, now interesting at $10.50-$11.00.
Credo Moves From Watchlist to Buy After an 18% Fall on Competition Fears
Credo fell 17.8% to $147.29 on a chip sell-off and MaxLinear cable plans. With fiscal 2027 guidance intact, the rating moves from Watchlist to Buy at $135-$150.
Factory Index Reached a 53-Month High as Price Pressures Built, and the Dow Fell 1.2%
Manufacturing PMI hit a 53-month high at 56.0 while prices accelerated, but the S&P 500 fell 0.52% and the 10-year yield rose 4bp to 5.00% in Friday trading.
Meta Beat Its Own Revenue Guide, but the Cash Question Keeps It on Watchlist
Meta beat the top of its Q3 guide with revenue of $64.6bn and ad prices up 14%, yet negative free cash flow and an unguided 2027 keep the rating at Watchlist.
Bloom Energy Raised Guidance a Third Time. At Fair Value, It Is Still a Watchlist
Bloom Energy grew Q3 revenue 138% and raised 2026 guidance again, lifting fair value to $221. With the stock near that level, Watchlist holds at $166-$188.
Jobless Claims Slipped to 194,000 as a Chip Rout Pulled the Nasdaq Down 2.6%
Initial claims fell to 194,000 against 200,000 expected, yet chips set Thursday's tone: the Nasdaq lost 2.6%, the S&P 500 1.21% and the 10-year yield hit 4.96%.
Tesla Passed the Margin Test in Q3. The Price Still Leans on the Robotaxi
Tesla lifted auto margin ex-credits to 18.1% and turned free cash flow positive in Q3, moving the rating to Watchlist from Avoid, but 229x earnings is a hurdle.
Crude Stocks Fell 3.1 Million Barrels While Cushing Added Almost 1 Million, and Tech Led the S&P 500 Higher
EIA crude stocks fell 3.06M barrels to 412.5M against a 0.82M draw expected, yet WTI slipped 0.68% to $97.15 as the Nasdaq rose 1.05% and the S&P 500 0.59%.
IBM Brought Its Slipped Deals Back in Q3, but the Shares Got to Fair Value First
IBM closed two-thirds of its slipped Q2 deals and narrowed Software to 7-8%, but the $251 pre-release close sat at fair value. Watchlist holds at $220-$230.
Netflix Beat on Margin, Then Guided Low and Cut Its Ad Target. Watchlist Holds
Netflix grew Q3 revenue 12% at a 34.6% margin, then guided Q4 below consensus and cut its ad target to $2.7bn. Rating stays Watchlist; interest near $60.
SpaceX Posts Its First Profit and a $33-37bn Q1 Guide. Watchlist Holds on Price
SpaceX lifted Q3 revenue 161% to $14.58bn and guided Q1 2027 to $33-37bn. Fair value rises to about $147, near the price, so the rating stays Watchlist.
Crude Stocks Fell 8.6 Million Barrels Against a Tiny Draw Expected, and WTI Rose 3%
EIA crude stocks fell 8.56M barrels to 415.6M against a 0.3M draw expected. WTI rose 3.03% to $97.97 Thursday as Brent slipped and the S&P 500 gained 0.33%.
SoFi Hits Its $14.45 Stop and Moves From Buy to Watchlist Ahead of 27 October
SoFi (SOFI) closed at $14.22 on 14 October, under its $14.45 stop, ending the Buy. Fair value falls to $15.79; the rating is now Watchlist, watch price $12.50.
Coherent Falls Through Its $263 Mark, but a $269 Fair Value Keeps It on the Watchlist
Coherent fell to $250.60, below its old $263 entry level, but fair value drops to $269.28. The rating moves from Hold to Watchlist, with $224 the new price.
Producer Prices Rose 1.3% in September, Their Largest Monthly Gain Since March 2022
September PPI rose 1.3% against a 0.5% forecast and retail sales gained 0.8%, yet the 10-year yield fell to 5.10% and the S&P 500 closed up 0.33% on Thursday.
Gasoline Rose 9.1% in September and Pushed CPI to 3.7%, Sending Homebuilders to an 18-Month Low
September CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, with core at 0.3% against 0.2% forecast. The S&P 500 fell 1.10% and the Nasdaq lost 1.88% Wednesday.
Rocket Lab Moves Neutron's First Launch Into 2027, and the Rating Holds at Watchlist
Rocket Lab now expects Neutron to first fly in 2027, not late 2026. Base fair value falls to $55 from $70, the watch price to $45, and Watchlist holds.
Resales Reached 3.99 Million With Mortgage Rates at 6.86%, but Wall Street Looked Past Housing
Existing-home sales rose 1.5% to 3.99M against a 3.97M forecast, with mortgage rates at 6.86% and supply at 4.8 months. The S&P 500 ended Tuesday down 0.02%.
Meta Ships Its First Frontier Model, and the Rating Still Waits for Paying Users
Meta released Muse Wonder, its first frontier-class model, on 12 October. It adds about $3 to fair value, and the stock stays Watchlist with a $663 watch price.
CXMT Says It Has Leapfrogged Samsung. Micron Stays a Buy, With Less Room for Error
CXMT claims a 4F² server DRAM design ahead of Samsung and SK hynix. Micron stays a Buy, but fair value falls to $1,146 and the buy range narrows to $950-$1,000.
Affirm Ran 20% Through Its Buy Range, So the Rating Moves to Watchlist
Affirm rose 20% in nine sessions to $80.70, leaving 6.6% to an unchanged $86 fair value. The rating moves from Buy to Watchlist, with interest near $71.
Broadcom Crossed Its Buy Line, Then a $50bn OpenAI Financing Report Pulled It Back
Broadcom closed above $368 twice, then fell 4.3% on a reported $50bn-plus OpenAI chip financing. It stays Watchlist, with a new $340 price of interest.
A 2.77 Bid-to-Cover at the 10-Year Auction Eased Rate Fears While Claims Barely Registered
A $39B 10-year auction priced 1.7bp through its screen at 5.300% and claims held at 197,000, yet the Nasdaq fell 1.25% on Thursday as chip shares sold off.
Yields Fell 7 Basis Points After a Solid 30-Year Sale, Yet the Nasdaq Dropped 1.25%
The Treasury sold $22B of 30-year bonds at 5.618%, level with the screen, on a 2.54 bid-to-cover. The long yield closed at 5.60% as oil rose 3.6% on Thursday.
A Surprise 3.2 Million Barrel Crude Draw Was a Sideshow to the Fed Minutes
US crude stocks fell 3.19M barrels against a forecast build, but WTI rose just 0.77% as Fed minutes and a 5.66% 30-year yield sent the S&P 500 down 0.22%.
Marvell Raised Its Targets at Investor Day, and the Price Ran Ahead Again
Marvell lifted its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $20bn on 6 October. Fair value rises to $261 and the watch price to $235, but the stock stays Watchlist.
Alphabet Ships Gemini 4 Argon, but Only Halfway, and the Buy Rating Holds
Google unveiled Gemini 4 Argon on 30 September with a claimed benchmark lead but a gated release. Alphabet stays a Buy with its $428 fair value intact.
ISM Services Prices Hit 74.0, a Four-Year High, and the Nasdaq Still Rose 1%
ISM services prices climbed to 74.0, the highest since July 2022, and the 10-year reached 5.31%, yet the S&P 500 gained 0.67% and the Nasdaq 1.05% on Monday.
Hike Bets Faded on a 29,000 Jobs Print, but the 10-Year Closed at 5.28%
September payrolls rose 29,000 against a 98,000 forecast and unemployment hit 4.2%, yet the 10-year edged up to 5.28% while the S&P 500 gained 0.73% on Friday.
AMD Moves From Hold to Watchlist as the Rally Outruns Value
AMD moves from Hold to Watchlist. A 13% run to $615.73 leaves the shares 17% above a $525 fair value while yields climb. Interest returns at $472 or below.
AppLovin Moves From Buy to Watchlist After Its Cut-Loss Triggers
AppLovin drops from Buy to Watchlist after closing below its published $284 cut-loss on heavy volume. Fair value holds at $476; a close above $300 reopens it.
Circle Holds at Watchlist as Binance Buys In and Signs a Five-Year USDC Deal
Circle stays at Watchlist after Binance buys a $100m stake and signs a five-year USDC deal. Fair value rises to $90.69 and the watch price moves up to $75.
Factory Input Costs Surged to 77.9 While Stocks Barely Flinched
ISM manufacturing prices rose to 77.9 against a 72.0 forecast and the PMI slipped to 54.5, yet the 10-year closed at 5.24% and the S&P 500 rose 0.2% Thursday.
SoFi Moves From Watchlist to Buy at Half Size After Yields Push It Into the Band
SoFi (SOFI) is upgraded to Buy at half size after a bond selloff pushed it into the $15.50 to $16.50 band. Fair value is trimmed to $18.61 for higher yields.
A Stronger Spring Economy Outweighed Softer Inflation on Wall Street
Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5% and the Chicago PMI jumped to 58.8, outweighing a soft core PCE as the 10-year hit 5.29% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%.
Micron Upgraded to Buy as Contracts Lock In Most of 2027
Micron moves from Watchlist to Buy. A $61.5bn guide and 26 take-or-pay supply deals lift fair value to $1,187, with an entry range of $950 to $1,050 set.
Cisco Moves From Buy to Watchlist as Its Exit Level Breaks
Cisco drops from Buy to Watchlist. The business holds, but its exit level broke and a 5.26% ten-year yield cut fair value to $121.73. Interest starts near $98.
Confidence Hit a 12-Year Low While the Bond Market Looked Elsewhere
Consumer confidence fell to 81.9, a 12-year low, and job openings slipped to 7.08 million, yet the 10-year edged up to 5.26% and the S&P 500 lost just 0.16%.
Eli Lilly Initiated at Watchlist: The Leader in Obesity Drugs, at a Full Price
Eli Lilly starts coverage at Watchlist. Tirzepatide sales are booming, but falling prices and a 25x multiple leave little upside; interest starts near $1,050.
Tempus AI Initiated at Avoid After a 92% Run in Two Months
Tempus AI starts coverage at Avoid. Reimbursement gains and the Personalis deal are real, but a 92% rally puts the stock 20% above a fair value of $68.
Palo Alto Networks Initiated at Watchlist: Best in Class, Priced for It
Palo Alto Networks starts coverage at Watchlist. Revenue is guided up 23-24% but EPS only about 9%, leaving $374.74 near 90x earnings. Interest starts at $300.
Zscaler Initiated at Watchlist as Its Sales Chief Steps Down
Zscaler starts coverage at Watchlist. Growth is resetting to 17%, the sales chief is leaving, and $193.05 sits near $186 fair value. Interest starts at $160.
Broadcom Cut to Watchlist as the $342 Stop Fires
Broadcom moves from Buy to Watchlist after closing below the published $342 stop, as the Fed hiked and the 10-year hit 5.18%. Fair value cut from $430 to $406.
Coherent Moves to Hold as the Price Catches Up With Fair Value
Coherent moves from Buy to Hold. The shares rose 11% while the 10-year hit 5.17%, trimming fair value to $315 and leaving about 6.5% upside from $295.83.
Consumer Sentiment Sank, Business Investment Didn't Get the Memo
Core capital goods orders jumped 1.6% against a 0.5% forecast, as consumer sentiment fell to a four-month low and the 10-year eased off its 2007 high.
Cloudflare Initiated at Watchlist: A Great Business at 44 Times Sales
Cloudflare grew revenue 36% last quarter and is guided to about 32% this year, yet at $358.82 it trades near 44 times revenue. Coverage starts at Watchlist.
A Housing Blowout and Falling Claims Lost to a Hawkish Fed Speaker
New home sales jumped 6.4% to an eight-month high and claims fell to 197,000, yet the 10-year's move to a fresh 2007 high traced to a Fed speaker, not the data.
Netflix Cut to Watchlist as the Termination Fee Comes Out of Earnings
Netflix moves from Buy to Watchlist. Stripping the $2.8bn Warner fee from earnings, weak engagement data and a breached stop cut fair value from $91 to $77.
Growth Became the Inflation Story on Wednesday
S&P Global's composite index hit 58.4, the fastest expansion since July 2021, and the 10-year added 15 basis points to 5.11% as the Russell 2000 shed 1.77%.
IBM Puts $2 Billion Behind Quantum and the Rating Does Not Move
A $1bn CHIPS award for IBM's Anderon quantum foundry was finalised on 16 September, matched by $1bn of IBM cash. It adds no revenue, and IBM stays Watchlist.
Meta Has a Subscription Business Now, and the Stock Already Paid for It
Muse topped the App Store and Meta One arrived priced from $2.99 a month. Fair value rises 22% to $715, but the shares rose 24.2% and got there first.
AMD Downgraded to Hold as the First Target Is Met
AMD's first target at $540 was met eight sessions after publication. At $545.09 the shares trade above a $531 weighted fair value, and the rating falls to Hold.
The Market Bought the Hike It Spent Eight Sessions Selling
Jobless claims fell to 196,000 and Philadelphia Fed prices paid jumped to 48.6, yet the 10-year shed seven basis points to 4.94% and the Nasdaq rallied 1.69%.
Affirm Upgraded to Buy as the Post-Results Rally Vanished
Affirm's 8% after-hours jump was surrendered within one session and the shares now sit below the pre-announcement close. Unchanged guidance, lower price, Buy.
Why the Nasdaq Shrugged Off the First Hike in Three Years
The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75-4.00% hours after August retail sales jumped 1.2%. The Dow fell 1.21%, the Nasdaq closed flat and the two-year added 7bp.
Credo Cut to Watchlist After the Stop Failed on Day One
Credo's $168 cut-loss broke on the first session after publication. Nine sessions later the shares sit 27% lower on no company news, and the rating falls.
Baker Hughes Downgraded to Watchlist as the Stop Is Reached
Baker Hughes lifted its 2026 guidance and then fell 7%. A cut to cash conversion and a fourth-quarter-weighted Chart contribution moves the rating to Watchlist.
Stocks Rose Into a 90% Chance of a Rate Hike
August core CPI ran 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast and lifted hike odds near 90%, yet the S&P 500 gained 0.86% as crude fell $2.43 and a four-day slide ended.
Adobe Upgraded to Buy as Two Triggers Clear
Adobe beat its quarter targets, raised the full-year outlook and named a permanent CEO. A lower share price now offers enough upside for a Buy rating.
The Ten-Year Hit a 52-Week High on an In-Line PPI Print
August producer prices rose 0.4% exactly as forecast, yet the annual rate jumped to 5.4%, the 10-year closed at 4.95% and rate-hike odds climbed toward 70%.
Oracle's Cloud Backlog Meets the Capital Bill
Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue doubled and its backlog reached $664bn, but negative free cash flow keeps the shares on the Watchlist for investors today.
CrowdStrike Returns to Watchlist: the Entry Never Came
CrowdStrike goes back to Watchlist. The $180-198 entry band set in August was never offered, and at $210.02 the shares now sit above the base-case value.
The Two-Year Moved Three Basis Points on a Payroll Blowout
Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 in August against a 58,000 forecast, yet the two-year yield added only three basis points and the S&P 500 still closed down.
Waller Outranked the Data on Thursday
Services prices paid hit 72.6, the highest since 2022, yet a dovish Waller pulled yields down and carried the S&P 500 up 1.06% into the holiday weekend.
Broadcom's Record Quarter, a Light Guide, and a First Look at 2028
Broadcom beat on revenue and earnings, guided the next quarter $200m light, then used the earnings call to put a first 2028 profit target on the record.
A 38,000 Payroll Print No Longer Buys a Rate Cut
ADP private payrolls rose 38,000 in August against a 47,000 forecast, the weakest since January, yet the 10-year touched 4.814% and equities closed higher.
Credo Upgraded to Buy After Both Triggers Fire
Credo beat its own guidance for a fifth straight quarter and raised the year, while the shares fell 17%. Both conditions set in August have now been met.
Four Prints, One Driver: Crude Ran Tuesday's Market
ISM manufacturing slipped to 54.6 and job openings fell to 7.271 million, but a 5% jump in crude and a 4.80% 10-year yield set Tuesday's direction instead.
Adobe Downgraded to Watchlist as the Discount Disappears
Adobe has run 26% past its original Buy level on sector beta and product news. The forward multiple is 11.2x, and the stock now trades above consensus.
Oracle Moves to Watchlist: the 5.5% Growth Figure Was Wrong
Oracle is upgraded from Avoid to Watchlist. Fiscal 2027 earnings growth is 17.9% on a clean base, not the 5.5% published three weeks ago. Credit has not moved.
Warsh's First Jackson Hole Doubled the Odds of a September Hike
Warsh said underlying inflation has not meaningfully improved and September hike odds jumped to 57.5% from 35.4%. Chicago PMI fell to 47.1 and went unheard.
Affirm (AFRM): The Headline EPS Was Not the Story
Affirm's $4.62 quarterly EPS was almost entirely a deferred tax release. The number that actually mattered was a fiscal 2027 take-rate guide of 4.16% of GMV.
Claims at 203,000 Give the Fed Room to Worry Only About Inflation
Initial claims fell 4,000 to 203,000 for the week ended 22 August against a 208,000 consensus, but it was Nvidia, not the labour data, that drove Thursday.
Marvell Raised the Outlook and the Stock Fell Anyway
Marvell lifted its fiscal 2028 revenue target by $1.5bn to about $18bn, then dropped as much as 7% after hours. Fair value rises to $229; the rating holds.
CrowdStrike Upgraded to Buy as the ARR Trigger Fires
CrowdStrike posted a record $333m of net new ARR and lifted full-year ARR guidance by 630bp, meeting the precise upgrade condition set out on 20 August.
Real Consumer Spending Went Nowhere in July
Core PCE held at 3.3% and real consumer spending was flat in July, yet the S&P 500 finished Wednesday within about two points of where the session started.
NVIDIA Beat Big. The Bull and Bear Cases Both Got Stronger.
NVIDIA's July quarter beat consensus by 4.4% and the multiple fell to roughly 17.5x forward. The financing of its own demand grew by an order of magnitude.
Three Numbers From Tuesday: 607,000, 9.6 Months and 68.2
New home sales fell 10.5% to a 607,000 annual rate in July and consumer expectations sank to 68.2, yet the S&P 500 closed 0.32% higher as yields eased.
GE Vernova (GEV): Where Does the Free Cash Flow Actually Come From?
GE Vernova opens coverage at Watchlist. The $176bn backlog is real, but almost all of the trailing operating cash flow arrived as customer down payments.
Meta's $16.68 Billion Settlement Removes a Tail Risk and Adds a Cash Claim
Meta will pay a maximum of $16.68 billion to settle the state child-safety case. It caps an unpriceable tail risk, and it does not change the Watchlist rating.
AMD Upgraded to Buy as the Retreat Meets the Trigger
AMD is upgraded from Watchlist to Buy after an 8.7% fall to $473.25 met the buy trigger set on 5 August, with the Helios ramp confirmed in full production.
Cerebras (CBRS): 103% Growth, and Two Customers in One City
Cerebras grew core revenue 103% and holds $8.6bn in cash, but roughly 86% of 2025 revenue came from two Abu Dhabi-linked entities. Coverage opens at Watchlist.
The Flash PMI Split: Services at a 20-Month High, Factories at a 13-Month Low
S&P Global's flash services PMI jumped to 56.8 against a 53.9 forecast while manufacturing slipped to 53.2. The composite hit 56.0, its best since April 2022.
Rocket Lab (RKLB): A 137% Backlog Surge and a Rocket That Has Not Flown
Rocket Lab's backlog rose 137% and revenue 62%, yet launch revenue grew 1.8% and the shares fetch roughly 41 times forward sales. Coverage opens at Watchlist.
Crude Stocks Built 4.4 Million Barrels and Oil Rose Anyway
US crude inventories rose 4.4 million barrels against a 0.2 million forecast, yet WTI climbed to $84. Distillate stocks 13% below average explain the split.
A Five-Year High in Philadelphia, and a Bond Market That Cared More
The Philadelphia Fed index hit 47.4 against a 24.1 forecast and jobless claims fell to 206,000, yet the S&P 500 lost 0.87% as the 10-year yield climbed.
Three Fed Officials Voted to Hike, and Stocks Closed Higher Anyway
July FOMC minutes revealed a 9-3 hold at 3.50%-3.75%, with three dissents favouring a rate hike and no cut camp at all. The S&P 500 closed 0.21% higher anyway.
Coherent (COHR): Booked Through 2028, and Burning Cash to Get There
Coherent beat and guided above consensus with fiscal 2027 fully booked, then fell 10.3% on a rival's cash flow miss. Coverage opens at Buy at $315.00.
Credo (CRDO): Five Questions About a 68% Gross Margin and a 40x Multiple
Credo tripled revenue at a 68% gross margin, but 60% of its guided fiscal 2027 lands in the second half. New coverage opens at Watchlist at $249.64 a share.
Housing Starts Fall to a Three-Year Low and Nobody on Wall Street Looked Up
July housing starts sank 12.4% to a 1.239 million rate, far under consensus, while permits beat at 1.443 million. The tape traded yields and chips instead.
Nu Holdings (NU): A Record Quarter Assembled From the Tax Line
Nu Holdings cleared $1 billion in quarterly profit, but pre-tax earnings were flat and the tax rate halved. New coverage opens at Watchlist at $14.74 a share.
ServiceNow (NOW): Downgraded to Hold Without a Single New Number
ServiceNow rose 11.5% in two weeks on a software rotation and analyst target raises, with no new company data. Coverage moves from Buy to Hold at $124.
The Consumer Buckled in July and the Bond Market Sold Off Anyway
July retail sales fell 0.6% against a 0.2% consensus and Michigan sentiment slid to 51.0. Weak demand data, yet the 10-year yield rose five basis points.
Cisco (CSCO): A Guidance Raise the Market Read as Bad News
Cisco beat the high end of its own guidance on every line and raised fiscal 2027 well above consensus, yet the shares fell 7%. New coverage opens at Buy.
Flat Headline PPI Buys a Record Close While the Core Runs Hot
July producer prices were unchanged against a 0.2% consensus, but core PPI jumped 0.4%. Equities traded the headline to a record S&P 500 close of 7,798.99.
Nebius (NBIS): The Call Was Worth 34%, and the Price Now Reflects It
Nebius beat modestly and reaffirmed guidance, then rose 34% on what management revealed about 2027 pricing and capacity. New coverage opens at Watchlist.
CoreWeave (CRWV): Four Conditions Were Set in July. The Quarter Answered Three.
July's CoreWeave review named four things that would justify an upgrade. Q2 cleared two, left one open and failed one. Fair value rises to $108; rating holds.
Four CPI Prints, Four Bullseyes, and a September Hike Taken Off the Table
July CPI hit consensus exactly on all four measures, 3.4% headline and 2.5% core. The 10-year eased two basis points and a September hike looks harder.
Lumentum (LITE): A Quarter That Improved the Company More Than the Investment
Lumentum beat on revenue, EPS and margin, then guided to 130% growth. The shares jumped 13% and the forward multiple barely moved. The rating stays Watchlist.
Bloom Energy (BE): A Record Quarter and a Watchlist Rating
Bloom Energy doubled revenue and raised guidance twice, yet the stock opens at Watchlist. At 78 times guided earnings, the price already holds the good news.
Existing Home Sales Land in Line, and the Tape Looked Straight Past Them
July existing-home sales slipped 1.7% to a 4.06 million annual rate, a whisker above consensus. Equities ignored it and traded oil and Wednesday's CPI.
Tesla (TSLA): Downgraded to Avoid After the Price Fell and the Multiple Did Not
Tesla's operating margin collapsed to 1.4% and free cash flow turned negative. The shares fell 17%, the multiple barely moved, and the rating drops to Avoid.
Airbnb (ABNB): The Best Quarter in Years, and a Price That Already Knows
Airbnb accelerated nights growth, raised guidance on both lines and gained 17.4% in a session. The Watchlist rating holds, now for the opposite reason.
AppLovin (APP): A One Percent Miss and a Twenty Percent Fall
AppLovin missed its own guidance for the first time since listing and fell 19.7%. Revenue still grew 53%, and at 18.9 times forward earnings it rates a Buy.
Datadog (DDOG): A Beat, a Raise, and a 19% Fall
Datadog beat, raised full-year guidance, then fell 19% after flagging a usage decline at its largest AI customer. The Watchlist rating holds, on new grounds.
Circle (CRCL): The Take Rate Held. The Float Didn't.
Circle defended its Coinbase contract and its reserve margin last quarter, but USDC in circulation fell 4.8% sequentially. The rating stays at Watchlist.
Oracle (ORCL): Downgraded to Avoid as the Credit Market Overrules the Rally
Oracle's five-year CDS hit an 18-year high and consensus now models fiscal 2027 free cash flow at negative $47.7bn. The rating drops to Avoid from Watchlist.
AMD: The Quarter Was Good. The Raised Long-Term Model Was the Real News.
AMD grew revenue 50% and more than doubled data centre sales, then raised its multi-year model and its $20 EPS target. The rating still stays at Watchlist.
SpaceX (SPCX): The AI Loss Is Closing. The Cash Burn Is Not.
SpaceX grew revenue 92% and turned its AI segment EBITDA-positive in its first public quarter. Capex of $18.4 billion is why the rating stays at Watchlist.
Baker Hughes (BKR): An Order Book Running Years Ahead of the Income Statement
Baker Hughes booked a record $7.1 billion of quarterly orders and a $37.1 billion backlog, yet revenue fell 2%. The reasoning behind the Buy rating on BKR.
Palantir (PLTR): An Extraordinary Quarter at an Extraordinary Price
Palantir grew revenue 93% at a 47% GAAP operating margin with 157% net dollar retention, then rose 29.5% in a session. Why the rating stays at Watchlist.
Amazon (AMZN): Ignore the $5.75. Look at the AWS Margin.
Amazon reported EPS of $5.75 against a $1.82 forecast, but a $53.4bn Anthropic gain explains almost all of it. The real story is AWS margin expansion.
Coinbase (COIN): Winning a Shrinking Market
Coinbase missed badly on revenue and posted a $1.36 loss, yet took record trading share for a third straight quarter. Why the rating stays at Watchlist.
Apple (AAPL): Best June Quarter Ever, Worst Reaction of the Week
Apple grew revenue 16% and fell 7%. The bull and bear cases turn on one question: whether the guided slowdown is a supply problem or a demand problem.
Micron (MU): The Best Quarter in Company History, and a Watchlist Rating
Micron earned an 86% gross margin and $50 billion of net income, yet probability-weighted fair value sits below the market. The rating moves to Watchlist.
Robinhood (HOOD): A Record Quarter With an Asterisk in Three Places
Robinhood posted record revenue and a large EPS beat, then fell on the day anyway. Three asterisks explain that gap, and why the rating stays at Watchlist.
Four Prints, One Bill: What Big Tech's Q2 Earnings Mean for Chip Stocks
Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple all confirmed the AI capex boom is accelerating. Chip stocks fell into a bear market anyway. A framework for the gap.
CrowdStrike (CRWD): Great Business, Wrong Price
CrowdStrike grew net new ARR 32% and holds 97% gross retention, yet trades at 151 times adjusted earnings. The bull and bear case behind the Watchlist call.
Lemonade (LMND): Why a 79% Revenue Quarter Cost the Stock a Quarter of Its Value
Lemonade grew revenue 79% and fell 24% in a session. The gap between reported revenue and in-force premium explains it, and the rating stays Watchlist.
Microsoft (MSFT): An 84% Jump in Backlog, and a 26% Jump in the Share Price
Microsoft beat on every line and guided Azure to acceleration, then rallied 26% in four sessions. The Buy rating holds, but the entry point now matters.
Meta (META): The Multiple Is Still Low, but the Cash Has Gone
Meta beat on revenue and missed badly on earnings, then erased the drop in three sessions. Why the rating moves from Buy to Watchlist on the capital picture.
SoFi (SOFI): A Record Quarter, and One Number Management Chose Not to Raise
SoFi beat on revenue and earnings and lifted its full-year sales outlook, yet held profit guidance flat. The reasoning behind the reaffirmed Watchlist call.
Amazon (AMZN): A Great Franchise Paying for an Unresolved Bet
Amazon's core earnings multiple is 37x, not the headline 27.6x, once an Anthropic stake gain is stripped out. Why the call is Watchlist into Q2 earnings.
Robinhood (HOOD): A Q&A Ahead of an Earnings Print That Already Happened
Robinhood grew net deposits 31% and converts 65% of revenue to free cash flow, yet trades at 44 times earnings with growth decelerating. A Q&A on the call.
SK Hynix Just Posted a Record Quarter — and the Stock Fell 14.7% Anyway
SK hynix beat every record on the books and still dropped 14.7% on an operating profit miss. Why this looks like an expectations reset, not a cycle turn, and wh…
AMD: A Genuinely Better Business, at a Price That Assumes It Wins
AMD is up 197% in a year on 14 gigawatts of AI deals, yet earns 7.8% on invested capital against a 17.8% cost. Why the price, not the business, is the problem.
Coinbase (COIN): The Bull Case, the Bear Case, and Why Neither Wins Yet
Coinbase shares fell 57% from their high as Bitcoin dropped and revenue shrank. A bull-versus-bear breakdown of why the call is Watchlist, not Buy, near $167.
Apple (AAPL): Three Numbers That Make This a Hard Buy Right Now
Apple grew revenue 16% and expanded margins this quarter, yet its earnings yield sits below the 10-year Treasury. Three numbers behind the Watchlist call.
Marvell (MRVL): A Growth Story Still Mid-Unwind From Its Own Blow-Off
Marvell grew revenue 28% and raised its fiscal 2028 target, yet the stock still trades at 49 times earnings after a 41% drawdown. Why the call is Watchlist.
Samsung and SK Hynix's $950 Billion Bet: What the Memory Mega-Deals Mean for Chip Stocks
Samsung and SK Hynix signed roughly $950 billion in supply deals with Nvidia and Broadcom, reversing a $1.5 trillion memory selloff. What it means for Micron, e…
CoreWeave (CRWV): Real Demand, but the Equity Sits Behind $35 Billion of Debt
CoreWeave has a $99 billion backlog and 146% expected growth, yet depreciation and interest already erase its entire cash margin. The case for patience.
Datadog (DDOG): A Q&A on the Best Operator in Software, at a Full Price
Datadog's revenue growth accelerated for four straight quarters to 32%, yet the stock trades at 19.5 times forward sales. A Q&A on whether that's a Buy.
Intel (INTC): A Real Turnaround, Priced Like a Sure Thing
Intel is up 170% in 2026 on foundry turnaround hopes, trading near 90x forward earnings while the foundry loses $2 billion a quarter. The call is Watchlist.
Alphabet and Tesla Report Q2 2026: A Capex Bet and a Margin Miss
Alphabet beat on revenue and raised capex guidance to $205 billion. Tesla beat on revenue but missed on profit. What both prints mean for AI and chip stocks.
Lemonade (LMND): Three Reasons for Caution, Three Reasons the Story Has Changed
Lemonade's loss ratio improved 16 points in a year and growth reaccelerated, yet the stock still trades at 4-5x sales. Weighing the bull and bear case.
NVIDIA (NVDA): The Rare Case Where the Price Is Not the Problem
NVIDIA grew revenue 85% with 75% gross margins and a $1 trillion order backlog, yet trades at just 21x forward earnings. Buy, not Strong Buy, and here is why.
SpaceX (SPCX): The Best Assets in the Market, at the Wrong Price
SpaceX trades 47% below its post-IPO peak, weighed down by an $18 billion cash-burning xAI bet and a looming wave of lock-up share supply into year-end.
Broadcom (AVGO): The Bull Case, the Bear Case, and a 20% Discount
Broadcom fell 13% on a clear earnings beat, then dropped another 20% from its June high on AI chip strength. The bull case, the bear case, and the verdict.
Affirm (AFRM): Proven Profitable, Priced for It
Affirm turned durably profitable this quarter with 35% GMV growth and contained credit losses. The business earned an upgrade; the price has not.
Airbnb (ABNB): A Wonderful Business, But Is the Price Right?
Airbnb generates 37% free cash flow margins and carries no debt, yet trades at nearly double the multiple of Booking Holdings. Quality is not the question.
Palantir (PLTR): A Q&A on a Great Business at a Demanding Price
Palantir grew Q1 revenue 85% and posted a 145% Rule-of-40 score, yet trades at 41x forward sales and 90x earnings. Why the call lands on Watchlist, not Buy.
Microsoft (MSFT): The Bull Case, the Bear Case, and What the Price Already Assumes
Microsoft fell 22% in a year despite accelerating Azure growth. The bull case, the bear case, and why the spending controversy looks priced in.
Netflix (NFLX): Three Reasons to Worry, Three Reasons the Sell-Off Went Too Far
Netflix is down 45% on back-to-back guidance misses, trading at a multi-year-low multiple. Three reasons for caution, three reasons it looks overdone.
SK hynix (SKHY): A Great Business, Priced Wrong on This Exchange
SK hynix leads the AI memory market, but its new Nasdaq ADR trades 24% above the Seoul shares it represents. Why that gap, not the cycle, is the risk.
Meta (META): Five Questions on the Cheapest Megacap Growth Stock
Meta grew revenue 33% and cut buybacks to zero in the same quarter. Five questions on why the stock still looks like a Buy at 19.8x forward earnings.
Alphabet (GOOGL): The Best Business on the Internet, Trading Like a Question Mark
Alphabet grew revenue 22% and Cloud 63%, yet the stock sits 15% below its high on capex fears. Why the sentiment-fundamentals gap looks like an opening.
Circle (CRCL): The Bull Case, the Bear Case, and the Verdict In Between
Circle's USDC franchise is strong, but 94% of revenue rides on reserve rates now under attack from a rival coin. The bull case, bear case, and verdict.
Lumentum (LITE): A Top AI-Optics Franchise, Priced for Perfection
Lumentum posted 90% revenue growth and a NVIDIA anchor investment, yet trades at 44x forward earnings. Great business, demanding price — call it Watchlist.
Adobe (ADBE): Three Reasons to Worry, Three Reasons the Market Might Be Wrong
Adobe trades at 9x forward earnings, a third of its historical average, after losing its CEO and CFO. Three reasons to worry, three reasons it may be overdone.
Chip Stocks Are Bleeding — Is This the Top, or a Sale?
Chip stocks lost $1.3 trillion in weeks after a record quarter. Here is why this looks like a valuation reset, not a demand collapse, and where to look next.
ServiceNow (NOW): Five Questions Before You Buy the Dip
ServiceNow is down nearly 50% on AI fears, yet renewals held near 97% and demand kept accelerating. Five questions on whether the dip is worth buying.
TSMC Just Posted a 77% Profit Surge — What It Means for AI
TSMC posted 77% profit growth and record margins in Q2 2026, with advanced chips driving 77% of sales — a strong signal for AI and chip demand.
IBM: Its Worst Trading Day in 115 Years, and Why the Street Is Split on What It Means
IBM shares fell 26% in a day, the worst drop since 1987, after a surprise earnings warning. The balance sheet is fine, the moat holds, and one week settles it.
SoFi (SOFI): A Genuinely Great Business That Still Isn't a Genuinely Cheap Stock
SoFi posted record revenue, profit, and loan growth this quarter, yet the stock is still down 31% for the year — and it still isn't obviously cheap.
Tesla (TSLA): A Genuinely Good Quarter Trading at a Price That Assumes a Great One
Tesla just posted record deliveries and real margin recovery. The car business looks solid. The $1.48 trillion price tag assumes a lot more than that.
Micron (MU): A Record Quarter, and a Stock in a Bear Market Anyway
Micron just posted its best quarter ever and beat estimates. The stock fell 22% anyway. Here is why the drop has almost nothing to do with the business.
Oracle (ORCL): A Real AI Boom Sitting on a Genuinely Stressed Balance Sheet
Oracle beat estimates and raised guidance, yet the stock is down nearly 60% from its peak. The problem is not demand. It is how the boom is being financed.
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