Consumer Sentiment Sank, Business Investment Didn't Get the Memo

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Friday’s durable goods report was supposed to confirm a slowdown. Instead it landed at 0.0% for August, comfortably ahead of a forecast for a 0.3% decline, and buried a business-investment signal strong enough to complicate the week’s inflation story just as it seemed settled.

1. The headline undersold the report. New orders for big-ticket manufactured goods slipped by only $0.1 billion to $338.6 billion, essentially flat and far better than the drop economists expected. July’s gain was revised down to 0.9% from the 1.1% first reported, a base effect worth noting before calling August a genuine deceleration.

2. Core capital goods did the real work. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, the cleanest read on business investment plans, rose 1.6% to $87.6 billion, more than triple the 0.5% consensus. Orders excluding transportation altogether were up 0.3%. Companies are still committing to equipment and machinery at a pace the forecast entirely missed, which is not the picture a market bracing for a slowdown wanted to see.

3. Consumer sentiment argued the opposite case. The University of Michigan’s final September reading fell to a four-month low, with respondents citing gas prices and tariff-driven cost concerns. Business spending held up; household confidence did not, and the two releases pulled the inflation debate in different directions on the same morning.

4. Treasury yields took the split verdict as a reason to pause. The 10-year closed at 5.17%, a basis point below Thursday’s 5.18% close and the highest level since 2007. After two sessions in which the curve did most of the work moving equities, Friday’s flat yield gave stocks room to trade on something other than the discount rate.

5. Oil gave the week its final push. WTI fell roughly $2.20 to $92.41 a barrel as reports of US-Iran talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz eased the supply-risk premium that had built up mid-week, taking some pressure off energy-sensitive inflation expectations.

6. Equities closed the week higher. The S&P 500 gained roughly 0.5% to close near 7,744, the Nasdaq Composite added about 0.5% to near 27,070, and the Dow rose 0.9% to 51,829, its best session of the week. The Russell 2000 lagged with a 0.3% gain, still trading below its 50-day average as small caps continue to carry the heaviest cost from five-percent Treasury yields. After a week that saw the 10-year jump from below 5% to a 2007 high, a stalled yield and a resilient investment number were enough to send stocks into the weekend on a positive note.

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