SoFi Technologies (SOFI) cleared the bar its last report set. The worry before 27 October was a fair-value mark on the loan book big enough to cut the full-year outlook. Instead, the company raised it. Third-quarter adjusted net revenue reached a record $1.37 billion, up 44%. Net income came in at $241 million and adjusted EPS at $0.18, up 64%. Management said fair-value losses of over $800 million were largely offset by about $734 million of hedge gains.

The 2026 outlook now calls for about $5.04 billion of adjusted net revenue and $0.61 of adjusted EPS. SoFi also gave its first 2027 outlook: about $6.4 billion of revenue and $0.90 of adjusted EPS. The market liked it. The shares rose 13.4% to $16.40.

The bull case. The quarter was clean. GAAP and adjusted EPS were the same, and pre-tax income more than doubled. The year-ago quarter had a tax rate near 6%, against about 24% now, so headline EPS growth actually understates the improvement. Credit got better. The all-in personal loan charge-off rate fell to about 3.4%, roughly 80 basis points lower than a year ago. Members grew 35% to 17.1 million and products 44% to 26.7 million. Management says the 2027 plan needs no new equity. A company that keeps raising its own numbers can beat this outlook too. The bull case puts 2027 EPS at $1.00 and the stock at $25.

The bear case. Most loans sit on the balance sheet at fair value, so credit and rates matter twice. The discount rate on personal loans rose to 5.56% from 4.97% in the quarter. Credit card charge-offs climbed to 7.77%. Capital is being used fast: the CET1 ratio fell to 16.9% from 18.7% in a single quarter. Tangible book value is $7.48 a share, and the price is 2.19 times that. If consumer credit turns and the 2027 outlook is cut, the bear case of $9.00 sits about 45% below the price.

Where that leaves the rating. The verdict stays Watchlist, for a different reason than last time. The event risk has passed and the business case is stronger. Price is now the obstacle. At 18.2 times the 2027 outlook, the base case of $18.27 offers about 11%. The weighted fair value is $17.82. The name becomes interesting at $14.00-$14.50, where the base case pays about 26%. A fourth quarter that beats the guided $0.19 with steady credit would also bring a Buy closer.

The scenario table, credit detail and full valuation are in the complete SoFi Technologies (SOFI) report on our Reports page.