Two filings on 26 October changed what is known about SpaceX’s compute business. One makes the build easier to pay for. The other makes the revenue look less secure.

What did Anthropic disclose?

Anthropic’s IPO prospectus, filed on 26 October, shows it may spend up to $120.5bn with SpaceX through 2029. Fees run at about $3.1bn a month once all contracted capacity is delivered, which Anthropic expects in December. The catch sits in the terms. Initial periods end in January and March 2027. After that, either side can end the arrangement on 90 days’ notice.

Why does that matter so much?

At the full rate, Anthropic is worth about $37bn a year. That is roughly 27% of the annualised midpoint of SpaceX’s own guide of $33-37bn in first-quarter 2027 revenue. If notice came in March and the capacity sat idle, about $19bn would drop out of 2027 revenue, worth roughly $14 a share at the multiple the base case uses.

And the Apollo deal?

SpaceX filed a binding commitment for about $40bn of GPU financing on the same day. An Apollo-managed entity will buy the chips and servers and lease them to SpaceX for five to five and a quarter years, starting as equipment arrives in the first half of 2027. Closing is expected by year-end. The lease removes the main dilution risk from the 2027 build. It also fixes a five-year cost against revenue that can end in 90 days.

What does this do to the value?

The new report values each segment separately: compute at 10 times revenue, closer to listed rental peers than to software, and Starlink at 15 times. The base case is $119 a share. The weighted fair value is $116.95, down from $147.42 in the last report and about 20% below the 26 October close of $146.90. The bear case now carries 30%.

Why does the rating stay at Watchlist?

The business is still growing fast. Third-quarter revenue rose 161%, and the first-quarter guide stands. What changed is the quality of the revenue, not its size, and the price already assumes that revenue is durable. The range of interest moves down to $110-120 from $120-135.

What should readers watch?

Starship Flight 15 is expected in November and will try to recover both stages. The Anthropic initial periods end in January and March 2027. Longer customer commitments would improve the case. A notice of termination would weaken it.

The scenario values, segment multiples and full risk table are in the complete Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) report on our Reports page.