The weekly crude inventory report was Wednesday’s only scheduled release, and it did not move markets. Fed minutes and a global bond selloff set the tone. The S&P 500 fell 0.22% to 7,801.77, retreating from a record, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.22% to 27,538.69 and the Dow dropped 0.66% to 51,179.87.

What was expected

Analysts looked for commercial crude stocks to rise by about 1.7 million barrels in the week ended 2 October, following a 922,000-barrel build the week before. Gasoline was forecast to fall by about 1.7 million barrels and distillates by about 2.1 million.

What printed

Crude inventories fell by 3.186 million barrels. That is almost 4.9 million barrels below the forecast. Gasoline stocks rose 382,000 barrels and distillates slipped only 42,000, so the product side came in looser than expected. A crude draw tightens physical supply and supports prices. Product builds suggest softer fuel demand or strong refinery output, which pulls the other way.

What the market did

The two signals largely cancelled. November West Texas Intermediate settled at $88.96, up 0.77%, and Brent held near $100. Geopolitics carried more weight than inventories: Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia drew retaliation from a Saudi-led coalition against more than 80 military sites. A cap sits on the other side. The International Energy Agency has agreed to accelerate stock releases, with about 325 million barrels deployed under its March emergency plan, which limits how far a single inventory draw can lift crude.

What outranked it

The Federal Reserve’s September minutes said most participants see another rate increase as likely appropriate by year end. Traders priced roughly 17% odds of a hike at the 27 and 28 October meeting. Yields rose globally. The 10-year yield closed at 5.28% on the Treasury’s par curve, up a basis point from 5.27% on Tuesday, while the 30-year finished at 5.66% after touching its highest level since 2002.

Higher discount rates compress the present value of future earnings, which fits a pullback in a Nasdaq trading near records. The oil print mattered mainly as an input to the same debate. With crude near $89 and Brent near $100, energy costs keep headline inflation firm, and that is the backdrop against which officials are weighing a second hike.

What it means for stocks

Energy producers benefit from firmer crude. Airlines, freight carriers and chemical makers absorb it as a cost. A second weekly draw would start to challenge the idea that supply is ample.

Thursday brings weekly jobless claims and a 10-year note auction, a test of whether buyers will absorb more long-dated debt at yields this high.

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