Marvell Technology used its 6 October investor day in New York to raise its numbers. The company lifted its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $20bn, from the roughly $18bn it gave on 27 August. It raised its fiscal 2029 custom silicon target to more than $12bn, from more than $10bn. Management also set targets for fiscal 2031: revenue of $70bn to $90bn, an operating margin of 44% to 46%, and non-GAAP EPS above $30 at the midpoint. The fiscal 2028 figure is an outlook for a year that has not started. The fiscal 2031 figures are management targets, four fiscal years out.

The shares rose 5.8% to $287.01 on 51 million shares, after trading as high as $301.27.

The bull case got stronger. The last report, on 2 October, set a clear test. Quantified targets implying growth of roughly 50% or more, with margin held, would lift fair value. Targets framed only as market size would cut it. Marvell passed. Taken from a $20bn base, the fiscal 2031 range implies compound growth of about 52% at the low end and 59% at the midpoint. The report’s own estimate is that the extra $2bn of fiscal 2028 revenue adds about $0.70 to base-case EPS, taking it to $7.25. That assumes a 35% incremental margin, since the raise leans on lower-margin custom chips. Weighted fair value rises from $223 to $261, and the bull-case weight goes from 30% to 35%.

The bear case did not go away. A bigger custom business means more dependence on Google, and more of Google’s warrant for up to 58.97 million shares is likely to vest. The fiscal 2031 target needs revenue to roughly quadruple in three years. A pause in hyperscaler spending, or one flagship programme slipping, would hit a stock that now trades 70% above its 200-day average. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.31% on 5 October, and value that sits years out is the most exposed to it.

Why the rating holds. At $287.01, Marvell trades 10% above the new $261 fair value and at 39.6 times base-case fiscal 2028 earnings. Justifying today’s price would take roughly a 64% weight on the bull case. The investor day changed the levels, not the call. The accumulation zone moves from $180 to $200 up to $220 to $240, with a first tranche at $235. No stop or target is set while no position is recommended.

What to watch. Fiscal third-quarter results are expected in early December, though the date is not yet set. Gross margin inside the guided range, and custom revenue on track for more than $12bn in fiscal 2029, would support a higher bull weight. A fiscal 2029 total revenue outlook would turn the long-range target into something closer to guidance.

The scenario table, the sizing of the new targets and the full trade levels are in the complete Marvell Technology (MRVL) report on our Reports page.