SpaceX reported after the close on August 4, its first quarterly report as a public company. The last regular-session close of $125.33 predates the release, and the only market verdict so far is an 8.6% after-hours fall to roughly $114.60.

The bull case

The quarter answered the objection that dominated the July initiation. Revenue of $7.8 billion grew 92% year over year and beat the $6.81 billion consensus by 14.5%. Adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion grew 191%, roughly twice the rate of revenue, and the net loss narrowed to $541 million from just over $1 billion.

The decisive line was the AI segment. Revenue of $2.6 billion grew 247% year over year and 213% sequentially, and adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $1.1 billion, with $1.6 billion of that revenue coming from new cloud services agreements at the Colossus sites. A business previously described as a cash drain with no visible return produced one inside two quarters.

Starlink was equally strong. Connectivity revenue of $4.3 billion grew 66%, with a record 1.7 million net subscriber additions and average revenue per user held flat at $66. Enterprise and government revenue within the segment grew 108%, and management said on the call that it has never lost an enterprise customer, with aviation still under 10% penetrated.

The bear case

Capital expenditure was $18.4 billion in a single quarter, $15.8 billion of it on AI compute, against $3.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA. That is roughly $15.8 billion of cash consumed in three months, and management guided the next two quarters to a similar level. The $100 billion cash and securities balance raised through the IPO and an inaugural $25 billion bond deal covers about seven quarters at that rate, and the 2027 ambition of 15 gigawatts of compute implies materially more.

The headline guidance also deserves arithmetic. Management targets a $100 billion annualised run rate by December, against roughly $31 billion today. The largest disclosed increment is $6.7 billion of newly contracted cloud revenue over six months from October, about a fifth of the gap. The rest is not yet visible.

What settles it

The multiple has genuinely improved, from roughly 83 times trailing sales in July to about 50 times annualised, because revenue grew rather than because the price fell. But probability-weighted fair value of $142.50 sits only 13.7% above the close, against a bear case that loses 44%, and roughly 911 million shares come off lock-up on August 6.

The rating stays Watchlist, on materially different grounds than three weeks ago. The complete SpaceX (SPCX) report can be found on our Reports page.