1. The monthly figure matched. The annual rate did not. The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4% in August, exactly the consensus the calendar carried. The damage sat in the unadjusted 12-month rate, which jumped to 5.4% from 4.8% in July and cleared the 5.3% economists expected. Final demand less foods, energy and trade services rose 0.3%. One base-effect caveat: the calendar shows July at 0.0%, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics now carries it at 0.1% after revision.

2. The bond market did the repricing, and equities paid for it. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.95%, twelve basis points above Wednesday’s 4.83% and a fresh 52-week high, per the Treasury’s own daily curve. With the Warsh Fed openly weighing a hike on 15-16 September, CME futures lifted hike odds to nearly 70% from roughly 62% before the release. A higher risk-free rate discounts distant cash flows hardest, which is why the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.65% to 26,081.73 against the S&P 500’s 0.58% decline to 7,591.79, and why the Russell 2000 dropped furthest at 1.02%. It was a fourth straight losing session.

3. Wednesday’s auction rules out a buyers’ strike. Treasury sold $39 billion of 10-year notes at a high yield of 4.834%, up from 4.683% in August, on a bid-to-cover of 2.71 against a 2.49 ten-auction average. Demand for the paper ran well above normal. Investors are still willing to fund the government, at a price that now embeds more inflation.

4. Housing shows what a 4.95% long bond costs. Existing-home sales fell 2.0% to a 3.98 million annual rate, matching forecast and down from 4.06 million, the slowest pace since June 2025. Inventory climbed to 4.9 months of supply, the highest in over a decade, while the median price held at $429,100. The binding constraint has shifted from a shortage of listings to the cost of the mortgage, and that reads straight through to builders, building products and big-ticket retail.

5. Labour gave the Fed nothing to hesitate over. Initial claims for the week ending 5 September printed 206,000 against a 205,000 forecast, down 1,000 from a prior week revised up to 207,000 from the 206,000 the calendar shows. Layoffs stay rare, which strips out the one argument that would stay the Committee’s hand.

Attribution should stay honest. Crude did as much work as the PPI report: Brent rose 3.6% to $105.37, its highest since May, on US-Iran tension around the Strait of Hormuz. That is a cost-push impulse no rate decision can answer. Friday’s CPI now settles the meeting.

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