Is Airbnb still a good business? By almost every measure, yes. The company connects roughly five million hosts with travelers across more than 220 countries, generated $12.24 billion of revenue over the trailing twelve months, and converted about 37% of that into free cash flow, a margin few companies of any kind can match. It carries no long-term debt and sits on a net-cash balance sheet. First-quarter 2026 revenue grew 18% to $2.68 billion, gross booking value rose 19%, and management raised full-year guidance to low-to-mid-teens growth on the strength of it.

So what’s the catch? Price. At roughly 28 times forward earnings and 29 times EV/EBITDA, Airbnb trades at nearly double the multiple of Booking Holdings, despite less than half its revenue scale. Core night growth, once a pandemic-rebound story, has settled into the high single digits, and 2025 net income actually declined about 5% even as revenue grew, a sign that reinvestment and stock-based compensation are eating into the bottom line. Airbnb’s own history offers some perspective: the current multiple sits below its post-IPO peak but well above the 2022-2023 trough, suggesting the market has already priced in a fair amount of optimism.

Does the new business optionality justify the premium? Partly, and that’s the open question. The relaunched Experiences product and the new Services vertical, which layers on things like airport pickups and grocery delivery, offer genuine upside if they scale into meaningful revenue lines. International expansion into under-penetrated markets like Japan, Brazil, and India adds another lever. None of that is proven yet at scale, and the current price already assumes a good deal of it works.

What would make this an easier buy? A better entry point, mostly. A probability-weighted fair value near $153 sits only modestly above today’s $144.94, with a bull case near $185-200 if the new verticals reaccelerate growth, and a bear case near $105-115 if travel demand softens or regulation squeezes host supply further. The more attractive zone sits around $125-130, near the 200-day moving average, where the free cash flow yield improves meaningfully.

So what’s the call? Watchlist, not Buy. This is a high-conviction business at a full-conviction price, the kind of setup where patience is likely to be rewarded more than urgency. Airbnb belongs on the radar for accumulation on weakness rather than a purchase at today’s level.

The full valuation model, competitive benchmarking, and scenario analysis are in the complete Airbnb (ABNB) report on our Reports page.