Tuesday’s only scheduled release was September existing-home sales, and the market barely noticed. Resales ran at 3.99 million, a touch above forecast, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.02% to 7,805.45. Bank earnings and a memory-chip selloff set the tone instead.

1. The print. Sales rose 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million, against a forecast of 3.97 million. August was revised down to 3.93 million, so the gain came off a lower base. Sales remain 2.2% below a year ago. The median price reached $417,500, up 1.3% from $412,300.

2. Mortgage rates are the story under the headline. The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.86% in September from 6.67% in August and 6.35% a year earlier. Closings lag contracts by a month or two, so September’s count reflects deals signed at lower rates. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said recent increases mean fewer buyers can qualify. He expects fourth-quarter closings to fall noticeably if rates stay well above 7%, and early pending-contract figures already point lower.

3. Supply is building. Inventory reached 1.60 million homes, up 4.6% from a year ago and equal to 4.8 months of supply, against 4.5 months a year earlier. Homes took 33 days to sell, up from 31 in August. Investors and second-home buyers made up 20% of sales, up from 15%, while all-cash purchases slipped to 27% from 30% a year ago. More listings and slower turnover hand buyers leverage, which helps explain why price growth has cooled to 1.3%. By region, the South and the West each gained 2.8%, the Midwest was flat and the Northeast fell 2.1%.

4. What the market did. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.15% to 27,204.38 and the Dow lost 0.35% to 51,670.10. Memory-chip shares sold off after reports that China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies had advanced a new chip design. JPMorgan missed profit estimates while Goldman Sachs beat them. New York Fed President John Williams said one more rate increase looked appropriate this year, and stocks recovered into the close. The 10-year Treasury yield ended at 5.21% on the Treasury’s par curve, down three basis points from the prior session’s 5.24%.

Housing did not drive any of that. A print this close to forecast, on a series that counts completed deals, carries little news.

5. What to watch. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year yield, and a 10-year above 5.2% leaves little room for them to fall. Homebuilders and mortgage lenders carry the most direct exposure to that channel. September CPI follows on Wednesday, with headline inflation forecast at 0.6% on the month and 3.6% on the year. A hot reading would push the 10-year higher and mortgage rates with it.

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