SoFi (SOFI): A Record Quarter, and One Number Management Chose Not to Raise
SoFi Technologies closed at $18.70 on August 4, up 11.7% from the $16.74 it fetched the day before second-quarter results landed. Getting to that price took an unusual route: the shares fell 8.9% on the morning of the release, then recovered the entire loss and more across the following four sessions. The rating remains Watchlist.
The quarter itself was the strongest in the company’s history. Adjusted net revenue of $1.206 billion grew 40% year over year and arrived roughly 7% ahead of the consensus estimate near $1.13 billion. Diluted earnings of $0.12 per share beat by a cent and rose 50% from a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA of $357.8 million expanded 44% at a 30% margin, marking a nineteenth consecutive quarter above the Rule of 40.
The operating detail was better than the headline. Members grew 35% to 15.8 million and products 42% to 24.4 million, the first time SoFi has added twice as many products as members in a single quarter. Cross-buy reached 51% of new products opened by existing members, against 43% in the prior quarter and 35% a year ago. Loan originations of $14.8 billion rose 69% while the personal loan charge-off rate improved to 2.62% from 3.03%, an unusual combination for a lender growing at that speed.
What complicates the picture is guidance. Management raised full-year adjusted net revenue to $4.75-4.85 billion but left adjusted EBITDA at roughly $1.6 billion and adjusted earnings per share at approximately $0.60. Asked directly on the call why profitability guidance did not move, the chief financial officer said the incremental revenue would be reinvested, on the argument that attractive growth opportunities expire while margin opportunities do not. The upside the company now expects this year is therefore guided to reach shareholders at a margin near zero.
That is defensible strategy and awkward valuation. At $18.70 the shares trade at 31 times guided adjusted earnings and 2.55 times tangible book value, against a return on equity in the mid single digits. Tangible book per share compounding 56% year over year is the strongest counterweight, and it reflects genuine capital formation rather than an accounting effect. But a probability-weighted fair value of $19.25 leaves roughly 3% of expected return on a share that moves 5% in an average session.
The business improved. The entry point did not. A retreat toward $16, or a third quarter that converts the revenue raise into raised profit guidance, would change the arithmetic. The full financial breakdown sits in the complete SoFi Technologies (SOFI) report on our Reports page.