Binance now owns a slice of Circle Internet Group. In an 8-K (Item 8.01) and press release on 22 September, Circle disclosed that Binance bought 1,237,011 Class A shares at $80.84 each, about $100m in total, under an agreement signed on 17 September. The shares carry a lock-up of up to two years. A new five-year USDC promotion agreement sits alongside. Circle will pay Binance a monthly fee equal to a percentage of the USDC held through Circle’s wallet service, and that percentage was not disclosed. The deal replaces earlier agreements from November 2024 and August 2025.

On 25 September a second 8-K (Items 5.02 and 7.01) reported that chief financial officer Jeremy Fox-Geen will leave by 31 December with no successor named, and that co-founder Sean Neville has resigned from the board.

What does the deal do to the numbers?

What follows is the report’s own estimate, not company guidance. The refreshed report lifts its Growth Potential score from 5 to 6 and trims the bear-case probability from 25% to 20%. It credits the Binance agreement with about $2.20 a share of fair value; without it, the weighted figure would be about $88.49. With it, fair value is $90.69, up from $83.75, from bull, base and bear cases of $133, $83.16 and $46, weighted 30/50/20. The composite score rises to 56.6 from 52.

Circle’s weekly disclosures show about $75.2bn of USDC in circulation in the week to 24 September, against $73.3bn at the end of June. In the second quarter, distribution costs took $412m of $701m in revenue, or 58.8%. The new Binance fee lands in that same line, and with the rate undisclosed, outsiders cannot yet tell how much extra float pays for it.

Why is the rating still Watchlist?

Price. The shares closed at $82.91 on 1 October, roughly on top of the $83.16 base case. Upside depends on the bull case, and a Buy needs the base case alone to pay. The stock is down 2.6% since the 18 September report and 12.3% below the 22 September high of $94.59. The watch price rises to $75 from $55, about 10% below the base case and at the top of the mid-August trading range.

What dates matter next?

• 27 to 28 October: the FOMC meeting, which sets the rate backdrop for reserve income.
• Around 11 November: third-quarter results, expected but not yet scheduled by Circle. The first test of whether the cost ratio climbs under the new terms.
• By 31 December: the CFO’s departure, with a successor still to be named.

The scenario table and full Binance analysis sit in the complete Circle Internet Group (CRCL) report on our Reports page.