NVIDIA reported second-quarter fiscal 2027 results after the close on 26 August. Revenue of $96.22 billion beat the $92.17 billion consensus by 4.4%, up 106% year on year. Adjusted earnings of $2.22 topped the $2.10 estimate. Data Center revenue hit a record $89.0 billion. The rating stays at Buy, with fair value raised from $291 to $301.

The bull case: the multiple fell without the price falling.

Third-quarter revenue is guided to $108.0 billion. On the call, Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress put fiscal 2028 growth at roughly 70%, and Chief Executive Jensen Huang immediately reframed it: “We have supply for 70% growth,” he said, adding that demand is much higher than that. A growth outlook limited by manufacturing rather than by orders is a different animal from a growth outlook limited by customers.

The Vera Rubin platform began production shipments in August with purchase orders from every major hyperscaler, AI cloud provider and system manufacturer. Amazon Web Services committed to a further two million GPUs. Revenue per gigawatt of data centre capacity rises from about $25 billion under Blackwell to about $40 billion under Vera Rubin. Shares closed at $209.66 before the print, 3.6% below where this coverage last valued them. On a larger estimate base, the forward multiple compressed from roughly 22 times to roughly 17.5 times. That is a de-rating earned by delivery rather than by disappointment.

The bear case: NVIDIA is increasingly inside the financing of its own demand.

The same call disclosed close to $50 billion invested in frontier AI laboratories and financing platforms with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR targeting more than $500 billion of third-party capital. NVIDIA can now offer take-or-pay commitments on NeoCloud capacity and share revenue above a minimum. A 4.25 gigawatt Portsmouth campus has OpenAI as its first tenant, and OpenAI’s commitments total roughly 12 gigawatts through 2030. Supply and capacity commitments stand at $279 billion.

Margins add a second concern. Gross margin is guided down to 74% next quarter, troughing at 71% to 72% in the fourth on memory costs management called “extreme.”

The scenario probabilities are therefore left unchanged at 25/50/25. The disclosures that strengthen the bull case are the same ones that give the bear case its substance, and counting them twice would be flattering.

Scenario bands, scorecard changes and the full trade plan sit in the complete NVIDIA (NVDA) report on our Reports page.