Four US releases landed inside the same half hour on Wednesday morning in Washington, and only one of them missed its forecast. The one that mattered most did not appear on the calendar at all.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in July and 3.3% from a year earlier, matching both figures the market carried into the print. Headline PCE also rose 0.2% on the month and 3.7% on the year, unchanged from June. Nominal consumer spending increased $36.3 billion, or 0.2%. Strip out the price effect and real PCE rose $1.3 billion, which BEA rounds to less than 0.1%. Consumers spent $86.2 billion more on services and $49.9 billion less on goods. In volume terms, July was a standstill.

That combination is the awkward one. Inflation stuck at 3.3% gives a Federal Reserve whose July minutes carried three dissents in favour of a hike no reason to move the discount rate lower. Flat real consumption removes the offsetting argument that strong demand will carry earnings regardless. Personal income rose 0.4%, outpacing outlays, and the saving rate held at 3.0%, so households took the extra income rather than spending it.

The second estimate of second-quarter GDP put growth at a 1.5% annual rate, a downward revision of less than a tenth and exactly where the consensus sat. An upward revision to consumer spending was offset by higher imports. First-quarter growth was 2.1%, so the deceleration stands.

Durable goods orders were the day’s only surprise, rising 1.1% in July against a 0.5% forecast, to $339.3 billion. The composition takes most of the shine off. Transportation equipment contributed $2.6 billion of the $3.6 billion gain; excluding transport, orders rose 0.4%, and excluding defence, 1.3%. Aircraft bookings are lumpy and say little about broad capital spending intentions.

Crude inventories were the quiet item. Commercial stocks rose 0.1 million barrels to 428.9 million, against a 4.4 million build the week before, leaving inventories 1% above the five-year average.

The tape did nothing with any of it. The S&P 500 closed at 7,675.70, down roughly two points, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.08% to 26,130.20, and the Dow lost 113.52 points to 53,463.88. The 10-year Treasury yield rose two basis points to 4.66%. Attribution here should be honest: three of four prints matched expectations, and the session was a holding pattern ahead of Nvidia’s results after the close, which sent index futures higher overnight on a strong sales outlook.

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