Thursday delivered two of the stronger economic prints of the month, and neither one set the tone for the day.

What did the data actually say?

Initial jobless claims for the week ending 19 September fell to 197,000 against a 201,000 forecast, with the prior week revised two thousand higher, to 198,000 from the 196,000 first reported. The four-week moving average eased to 202,250. Separately, the Census Bureau’s new home sales report jumped 6.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 units in August, an eight-month high that blew past a 619,000 consensus. July’s rate was revised up sharply as well, to 643,000 from the 607,000 originally published, so the August gain compares against a stronger base than the calendar showed going in. Sales still sat 2.0% below August 2025, and months’ supply eased only to 8.5 from 9.0, so the market remains oversupplied by historical standards even as the pace of sales accelerates.

Why did yields still hit a fresh 2007 high?

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.18% on the Treasury’s daily par curve, up seven basis points from Wednesday’s 5.11% and its highest level since 2007. The 30-year reached roughly 5.45%, a level last seen in 2004. Two beats on the same morning, both consistent with an economy running hotter than the Federal Reserve wants, gave the bond market another reason to mark up the odds of a fourth hike this cycle. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson added to that directly, saying some modest further tightening may be warranted if inflation holds where it is. That single line arguably did as much to the long end as the 8:30am and 10am releases combined.

Why didn’t stocks follow the curve down again?

Wednesday’s PMI shock cost the Russell 2000 1.77% and the Nasdaq 1.13%. Thursday, on a comparable move in yields, the S&P 500 closed effectively flat at 7,704 and the Nasdaq Composite actually edged up to 26,939. The difference was Iran. Reuters reported that US and Iranian negotiators were discussing a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and equities trimmed their early losses on the headline. Mega-cap technology, led by Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Netflix and Apple, did the rest, offsetting selling in industrials and materials. The Dow, with less shelter from those names, still fell 0.31% to 51,350.

What about oil?

WTI rose 2.66% to $94.61 even as the Hormuz headline was nominally bullish for supply. A phased negotiation is not a resolved one, and traders priced the transit risk that remains rather than the outcome they are hoping for. Energy led the day’s sector gains, alongside healthcare and communications, while the stronger-for-longer growth story kept pressure on rate-sensitive industrials and materials names.

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